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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

  • -- Daniel Kahneman 丹尼尔·卡尼曼

有些领域不可能有专门知识。选股就是一个很好的例子。在长期的政治战略预测中，专家的表现并不比扔骰子的猴子好。

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And the political system is changing rapidly in this country, and we better realize that. The elephants or donkeys are not what younger people look to. They look at individual candidates' philosophy, and I think it's a different time and a different generation.

这个国家的政治体制正在迅速变化，我们最好认识到这一点。大象或驴子不是年轻人所期待的。他们关注个别候选人的哲学，我认为这是一个不同的时代，不同的时代。

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The fact that political ideologies are tangible realities is not a proof of their vitally necessary character. The bubonic plague was an extraordinarily powerful social reality, but no one would have regarded it as vitally necessary.

政治意识形态是有形的现实这一事实并不能证明其至关重要的必要性质。黑死病是一个非常强大的社会现实，但没有人会认为它是必不可少的。

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Confidence is the most important single factor in this game, and no matter how great your natural talent, there is only one way to obtain and sustain it: work.

自信是这个游戏中最重要的一个因素，不管你的天赋有多好，只有一种方法可以获得并保持它:工作。

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We should be the natural home for young mothers. But we're not. Because too often we sound like people who think the only good mother is a married mother.

我们应该成为年轻母亲的天然家园。但我们不是。因为我们经常听起来像那种认为只有已婚母亲才是好母亲的人。

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