There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

  • -- Daniel Kahneman 丹尼尔·卡尼曼

有些领域不可能有专门知识。选股就是一个很好的例子。在长期的政治战略预测中,专家的表现并不比扔骰子的猴子好。

相关名言

Confidence is that feeling by which the mind embarks in great and honorable courses with a sure hope and trust in itself.

信心是一种感觉,在这种感觉下,我们的心灵怀着坚定的希望和信心,踏上伟大而光荣的道路。

There is a certain enthusiasm in liberty, that makes human nature rise above itself, in acts of bravery and heroism.

人们对自由有一种热情,这种热情使人的天性在勇敢和英勇的行为中超越自我。

And whether you're an honest man, or whether you're a thief, depends on whose solicitor has given me my brief.

你是一个诚实的人,还是一个小偷,这取决于谁的律师把我的案情告诉了我。

Every girl needs a good guy who can help her laugh when she thinks she'll never smile again.

每个女孩都需要一个好男人,当她觉得再也笑不出来的时候,他能帮她笑起来。