There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

  • -- Daniel Kahneman 丹尼尔·卡尼曼

有些领域不可能有专门知识。选股就是一个很好的例子。在长期的政治战略预测中,专家的表现并不比扔骰子的猴子好。

相关名言

Although as a sailor I despised politics - for I loved my sailor's life and still love it today - conditions forced me to take up a definite attitude towards political problems.

尽管作为一名水手,我鄙视政治——因为我热爱我的水手生活,直到今天仍然热爱它——但环境迫使我对政治问题采取明确的态度。

When I was first elected I was puzzled why they were holding events in my honor as a mere freshman. I asked myself, why is a federal entity so involved in political activity?

当我第一次当选时,我很困惑为什么他们要为我这个大一新生举办这样的活动。我问自己,为什么一个联邦实体会如此积极地参与政治活动?

But, as always, Mr. Rooney would come over and shake your hand and congratulate you on a good game, no matter what the situation was.

但和往常一样,鲁尼会过来和你握手,祝贺你踢得不错,不管情况如何。

Freedom is a man's natural power of doing what he pleases, so far as he is not prevented by force or law.

自由是一个人做他喜欢做的事的自然力量,只要他不被武力或法律所阻止。