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The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

  • -- Nate Silver 内特·希尔

做出好的预测的关键不在于将自己局限于定量信息。

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Good Yourself Making

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Often, when you've reached a very high level of achievement, you almost become paralyzed by the idea that anything you might do might be imperfect. Perfection is just the striving, the effort, the struggle, but it's hard to remember that.

通常，当你达到很高的成就水平时，你几乎会因为你可能做的任何事情都可能不完美而麻痹。完美就是努力，努力，奋斗，但是很难记住。

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To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

在某种程度上，你可以找到预测的方法，没有什么可以代替在你事先不知道答案的真实情况下测试你自己。

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It may be necessary temporarily to accept a lesser evil, but one must never label a necessary evil as good.

暂时接受较小的恶也许是必要的，但永远不要把必要的恶贴上善的标签。

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The telephone is a good way to talk to people without having to offer them a drink.

电话是一种不用请他们喝酒就能和他们交谈的好方法。

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Making the record was tons of fun, the most fun I've ever had.

录制这张唱片非常有趣，是我经历过的最有趣的事情。

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Giving yourself permission to lose guarantees a loss.

允许自己失败一定是一种损失。

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